Marvin Jones: Same Play. Different Coverage. Similar Result.

When the Bengals were trying to mount a comeback, both of their starting cornerbacks made big interceptions and gave Andy Dalton and the offense a chance to get this game closer. After Newman’s INT, Dalton hit Green easily for a TD. After Leon Hall’s INT, the Bengals QB looked towards their third WR on third and 8 and when inside the red zone.

* 3rd and 8. Cincinnati has 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 RB (11-Personnel)
* Sanu and Marvin Jones are stacked to Dalton’s left. This is a typical man-coverage-beating-alignment.
* Green Bay drops both Corners because of the stacked look.

* Jones is running a Post-Corner route.
* He first runs his route DIRECTLY at the Safety/CB Tramon Williams. This forces the Packers’ DB to make a decision.

* Once Williams opens his hips, Jones breaks towards the sideline/corner. He’s got him.
* Sanu hooks up underneath between the CB and LB.

* Both of the Packers underneath defenders jump on Sanu as Dalton starts to throw.

* The open area between the DBs allows for an easy throw. Big play for Dalton and Jones.

————————————-

* Here we go again just outside the 10-yard line. Same formation and alignment.
* This time, Green Bay walks Tramon Williams up to the LOS to jam Marvin Jones.

* Jones gets a clean inside release and Williams grabs Jones’ left arm to try and slow him down.

* Jones extends his arm into Williams’ chest then releases it as the Packers DB leans in.

* That move forces Williams’ momentum to carry him further inside than he’d like and by that time, Jones is running for the corner and the ball is thrown.

* Again, we have a wide open Jones, who makes a nice catch.
* The same play by the Bengals offense, but Marvin Jones had to know how to beat two different types of coverages. He passed the test.

The Bengals Are Cool, Run Read-Option on MNF

The coolest new toy on the NFL block is the read-option. I mean, try it. Everyone is totally doing it. All the good teams run the read-option. You can’t get addicted to it on the first read. Trust me.

On Monday night, Cincinnati actually ran a couple read-option plays. I’m not sure if Dalton planned on running if the situation presented itself, but the threat evens the playing field from a numbers standpoint. Here’s the first play:

* First & 10 early in the first quarter.
* Green-Ellis is a yard behind and to Dalton’s left.

* Dalton puts the ball into BJGE’s belly and reads the edge rusher (yellow); the blitzing Nickel CB.
* If the CB looks to crash down (blue) and attack the RB, Dalton will pull it back and keep it himself.
* If the CB looks like he’s going after the ball, Dalton will allow BJGE to keep the ball and run.

* Dalton gives the ball to BJGE and he takes it up field and cuts between the LT & LG.
* Dalton runs left as if he still has the ball to keep the CB’s attention a little longer.

* Green-Ellis cuts it up field and gains yardage without needing to make a defender miss. That’s the numbers advantage of the read-option. Instead of the RB having (in theory) 9 blockers against 11 defenders, the read-option forces the defense to account for the QB and makes it now 9 blockers vs 10 defenders (The 11th defender is chasing the QB).

* BJGE finishes the run with authority.

And that’s how you can be cool in the NFL.

Gio Bernard Is Who We Thought He Was!

I can’t say that I wasn’t a little proud watching Bengals rookie runner Giovani Bernard on Monday night. Those that follow me know that I’ve been thirsty for a real running back for the past few seasons and Bernard was who I pegged after the Bengals’ last playoff loss to the Texans.

Gio Bernard captured my scouting heart the first time I watched him and filled out his grading scale and scouting report. Here’s what I wrote:

“Gio Bernard is blessed with good speed, agility and acceleration to go with an ideal power/balance ratio. His best attribute is everything that makes up the Pre-LOS (line of scrimmage) ability. Think of Arian Foster and his ability to see the hole being created on the backside, yet he strings along the linebacker, presses the hole then violently cuts back into the open field. He’s the best running of this class when it comes to that. He will not be dependent on a good offensive line.”

On Monday night, we got to see what makes Bernard special.

* First down and Cincinnati comes out in their 12-Personnel (1-RB, 2-TE).
* Eifert is at H-Back to Bernard’s left.
* This is an inside Zone run.

* As Gio gets the ball, he looks for his running lanes.
* YELLOW – Lawrence Timmons is sliding into that hole and is ready to fill it.
* BLUE – If Gio can string Timmons far enough and keep him in the Yellow, Bernard should be able to cut it up into this lane.
* PURPLE – With the Steelers’ OLB coming from the outside, Gio must maintain his inside run to get the LB to come inside and get picked up by Eifert.

* Gio presses the Yellow hole and forces Timmons to commit to it; Bernard cuts hard to his left.
* He must now choose between Blue or Purple.

* The Pittsburgh DE and OLB crash inside and Bernard turns on the jets towards the outside.
* This is all before he even passes the Line of scrimmage.

* And Bernard finishes by lowering his head and shoulder into the gap between the FS and CB.

But some still had questions about Giovani Bernard’s pass protection and toughness.

* Ryan Clark (Yellow) vs Gio Bernard (Orange)

* Gio takes the handoff and makes his way to our left.
* Clark crashes the LOS and looks like he expects Bernard to take the outside (purple) lane.

* Gio dips behind Andre Smith for a split second and Clark has to slow down.
* Bernard cuts hard back inside behind the blocks of Zeitler and Cook.

* Again Bernard is eclipsed by an offensive lineman. He has Clark in Oh Crap mode as he now much track around Kyle Cook and catch Gio from behind.

* Giovani Bernard gets low and pushes the pile into the end zone.
* Ryan Clark (yellow) is left on his butt looking for Bernard.

PASS PROTECTION

* Pittsburgh will blitz both ILBs in an effort to confuse the rookie RB.

* The first blitzing ILB is picked up by the big guys up front and that leaves Bernard in a one on one situation with a LB that has 50 lbs. on him.

* In that scenario, you cut that LB and send him flipping. Gio does just that.

* Cincinnati is going to block left and allow Lamar Woodley to rush free from the outside.

* As Woodley shortens his arc to the QB, Bernard must come IN FRONT of Dalton, and then get back outside in time to slow down the Steelers best rusher.

* Bernard aims for Woodley’s hip/thigh area and clears him for just long enough for Dalton to unload a deep ball.

DECOY

* Gio flares out into the right flats and Gresham hooks up in a soft spot against zone coverage.

* Bernard is a receiving weapon for Dalton and has the attention of both Pittsburgh defenders in the area.

* That’s good for Cincy as Gresham hauls in the pass and rumbles down field for a big gain.

Split Screen: Green-Ellis and Gio Bernard

With veteran back BenJarvus Green-Ellis getting 64% of the snaps and rookie Giovani Bernard seeing the other 36% in Chicago, many fans were left asking “WHY?!”.

Cincinnati is a heavy Zone running team. They’re not at the level of Washington or Houston in execution, but the Bengals need to find their identity in the backfield before they can flourish close to the levels of those teams.

Here, we’re going to look at two very similar running plays from Sundays game. One featuring “The Law Firm” and the other showing the potential of a rookie.

Green-Ellis

* We have a 1st and 10 from Chicago’s 32-yard line.
* Cincinnati lines up in their (now usual) 12-personnel with a WR on each side and both TE on the right.

* The run is designed to go left with Boling and Zeitler taking on LBs on the second level.
* Kyle Cook gets walked into the backfield by Stephen Paea and Anthony Collins tries pushing Peppers aside with one arm (why?).
* As BJGE gets the ball, he’ll either need to cut it back or bounce it outside because the pressure is in his face already.

* Green-Ellis takes a few stutter-steps and then plows into Paea and Peppers.

* Sure, it takes four Bears to stop him and the Green-Ellis never actually got tackled, but this play shows his inability to create yardage when things go wrong. He’s completely dependant on the offensive line’s success on every run.

Gio Bernard

* Second down and two to go from Cincinnati’s 28-yard line.
* Bengals substitute Tyler Eifert at TE with Orson Charles at H-back.

* Similar play to the one above. Run is designed to go left.
* Kyle Cook is again getting walked backwards.
* Gio Bernard is now faced with the same snap-decision as BJGE.

* Gio plants his left foot and cuts hard back towards the inside and Cook rides his block towards the outside.

* Gio now has the choice between following Orson Charles up the middle or bouncing it outside where there’s more room to run.
* As Charles starts losing his block (and eventually flagged), Gio again plants his foot and bounces it outside.

* Bernard finds help in the form of Andre Smith and A.J. Green protecting the ally. He goes full speed and tries to split the safeties.

* Gio doesn’t accomplish the final feat in a great run, but he finishes by lowering his shoulder in bowling over both defenders for an extra yard or two.

* The vision and agility are evident in Bernard’s game. I felt like he was the best running back prospect I’ve seen BEFORE the line of scrimmage and this is another example. He doesn’t need all five lineman to win on every play because he can create yardage on his own.

Bengals at Bears – Plays of Interest: The First Interception

This was Cincinnati’s second snap of the game. The first play was a play-action rollout and 3-yard completion to Tyler Eifert.
The next play started similarly, but had a much harsher result.

* Bengals come out in 12-personnel (1-RB, 2-TE) with a WR on each side.
* AJ Green is going to run a quick slant after 3-steps.

* Charles is only about 5-yards off in coverage, but his eyes are firmly locked on Andy Dalton.

* The Bengals start the play looking like a stretch run to the left.
* Important to note that Dalton’s eyes are not looking at the defense. He’s trusting that Green will get inside and beat Tillman for a quick catch.

* Dalton plants the right foot and snaps his head around. He isn’t wasting time and once he’s set, he’s throwing to AJ Green in the open area (light blue).

* With Tillman looking into the backfield, he sees Dalton planting and setting to throw before Green even starts to cut inside. He’s got the jump on the inside.

* Obviously Tillman gets inside position and hauls in the interception.
* A.J. Green CANNOT, under ANY circumstances, let the defender inside.

Andy Dalton is trusting his WR to be at a spot and able to catch the ball. This is a bang-bang play and unfortunately the needed intensity wasn’t there from A.J. Green. On a tremendous receiving day for Green, he was at fault for both of his Quarterback’s interceptions.

Bengals at Bears Plays of Interest: 3rd and 17

This was the Bengals first opportunity to experiment with their 3-Safety Nickel package with Taylor Mays in at Linebacker. Chicago has great field position after an interception, but they face 3rd & 17 and survive an exotic Mike Zimmer blitz package.

* Cincinnati shows a single-high safety (Iloka) and Man-Coverage underneath.
* Chicago has 3-WRs and 1-TE split out.

* Just before the snap, George Iloka starts sprinting and aligns over Reggie Nelson in the slot.
* This alignment almost always means the DB closest to the LOS (Nelson) is blitzing.

* At the same time, Leon Hall is dropping out of his slot coverage and rotating back as a Safety. He and Iloka are now creating a Cover-2 look.
* Both LBs are showing blitz in the A-Gap in an effort to get the Chicago offensive line to block inwards-out. So the LBs be accounted for first in blitz pickup.
* Nelson (red) would then get a free rush from the outside.

* At the snap, both Bengals LBs (Mays & Burfict) drop back into coverage with attention placed on Chicago’s two slot targets (Bennet & Marshall).
* With Chicago blocking the inside first, this leaves Dunlap unblocked.

* Matt Forte comes across the formation and cut-blocks Dunlap.
* Watch the ANTICIPATION by Jay Cutler. With Burfict’s eyes firmly placed on Brandon Marshall, Cutler can throw the ball right at him without the Bengals LB knowing it.
*With both safeties (Iloka & Hall) playing deep and to the boundary, there’s a big gap down the seam. The open area where Cutler must place the ball is marked in light blue.

*Perfect pass and catch from Cutler to Brandon Marshall. They convert on 3rd and 17.

This is a scenario we saw for too often on Sunday. Marshall was bracketed by a Safety and Linebacker and he kept converting and moving the chains.

Breaking Down A Bengals Play: Two TE Seam

While reviewing Cincinnati’s preseason games for the last time, there was a play I noticed being run in every game. It wasn’t always successful, but you could tell they were working on the concept while adding a new wrinkle each time.
I chose the week 2 play against the Titans because it allowed for the best footage to illustrate this design.

* The Bengals were using 12-personnel (1RB, 2TE) for the majority of this drive as they leaned on the run game.
* This is a balanced formation with both Tight Ends (orange) on the LOS and the Bengals QB in shotgun.

* Both of the WRs will run 9-routes with outside releases. This is to carry the CBs to the outside and keep both safeties deep.
* With each of the Titans safeties outside of the hash marks and 13+ yards down field, this is an easy pre-snap read for John Skelton. We’re probably looking at a Cover-2 variation.
* The Bengals TEs will be asked to get an outside release and really flare out and “bend” their vertical route just inside the numbers.

* The Bengals will show run by pulling their LG (red) to the right (your left) and blocking down with the remaining OL.
* The pull, combined with the play-action fake to the RB will help freeze the Titans LBs.

* You can see both of Tennessee’s OLBs run up to take on their run responsibilities.
* This will leave a huge window (pink) for both TEs and Skelton to throw to.

* This is as the Bengals’ QB is about to throw. You can see the wide open gap. This is a very quick play from snap to pass and that keeps the LBs from reacting and getting back into coverage.

* Finally, here’s the catch by Tyler Eifert and you can see just how wide open he is.

After seeing this play run in each preseason game and in some training camp videos/highlights from around the web, I think this is a concept we can expect to see plenty in 2013. With the two-TE set figured to be featured in Cincinnati and A.J. Green forcing a safety deep, look for that same gap to be available after play-action. This also allows Andy Dalton to get into shotgun — where I think he’s best — and Giovani Bernard into the ballgame — because they’ll use him in most passing/shotgun situations.

I especially think this play with be successful against the Chicago Bears and their Cover-2 in week 1.

2013 Bengals Offensive Statistical Projections

If the Cincinnati Bengals want to take the leap from Wild Card losers to AFC contenders, they’ll need more production from an offensive unit that hasn’t cracked the top 20 in two seasons under Jay Gruden. At 332 yards per game in 2012 (ranked 22nd), the Bengals would need to get around 372 yards per game in 2013 to get into the top 8 offensive teams. Five of the top eight made it to the Playoffs in 2012 and with Cincinnati’s defense poised to be another top 10 unit, the Bengals could join the Playoffs again in 2013 for the third straight year.

Using the numbers from this offense from 2011-2012 and projecting the new changes to Gruden’s offense, here’s how I see the Bengals offense playing out in 2013.

Quarterback
Andy Dalton has been very efficient in his first two seasons in the NFL. He’s averaged over 3,500 yards passing and has racked up 53 total touchdowns in two seasons. His yards per attempt increased from 6.6 to 6.9 in his sophomore year and his accuracy jumped from 58.1 to 62.3 this past season. While his touchdown percentage was up in 2012 (3.8% to 5.1%), his interception percentage also increased (2.5% to 3.0%).

The additions of Giovani Bernard, Tyler Eifert and a healthy Mohamed Sanu should increase Dalton’s efficiency and accuracy again in year three, but it also may cap his yards per attempt at 7.0 because we can expect more passes to the running backs and more targets for the slower-type WR in Sanu. Eifert is the wild card because he can make plays on the ball down field. If he and Dalton are in synch early, it could help Dalton’s down field efficiency; an area that has held the offense back.

2013 Projection for Andy Dalton
Attempts: 568
Completions: 356
Percentage: 62.7%

Passing yards: 3,947
Yards per attempt: 6.95
Passing TDs: 30
Interceptions: 17
QB Rating: 88.4

Rush yards: 130
Rush TDs: 2

Fantasy Points: 363

Running Back
The Bengals are notorious for being loyal to their veteran, bell-cow runners and with BenJarvus Green-Ellis returning as the starter many are skeptical about the production of rookie Giovani Bernard.

Bernard and Green-Ellis aren’t even on the same planet in terms of talent and running back isn’t a position that needs time to develop from college to the NFL. I think it will only take a few games before Gio is taking the bulk of the carries and I expect him to get all of the passing game touches from day one.
But what about the Law Firm?
He’ll continue his role as the short yardage back and will often spell Bernard to change the pace. Cincinnati usually gives their top two backs about 87% of the total carries in a season under Gruden and their former RB coach (Anderson). The Bengals haven’t been good with rotating their backs, but Marvin Lewis puts that responsibility on his RB coach and Hue Jackson has that title for the first time in 2013. Remember, he hand-picked Giovani Bernard in the draft before any other back in that class. This is Hue’s guy.

2013 Projection for Giovani Bernard
Carries: 199
Yards: 891
Average: 4.47
Rushing TDs: 4

Receptions: 39
Rec Yards: 323
Rec TDs: 2

Fantasy Points: 196 (PPR)

2013 Projection for BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Carries: 156
Yards: 562
Average: 3.6
Rush TDs: 5

Receptions: 11
Rec Yards: 55

Fantasy Points: 102 (PPR)

Wide Receiver
A.J. Green leads the pack again as the focal point of the offense. They flow through him and as he goes, the rest of the offense goes. I expect second-year players Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones to take steps in relieving pressure from Green. Sanu is listed as the other starter, but he moves into the slot (where he’s much better) and Jones goes outside in 3-WR packages. With Andrew Hawkins expecting to miss most of the first half of 2013, Sanu shouldn’t see a bite into his slot snaps, but veteran backup Brandon Tate works at all three positions and the Bengals like his speed. They’ll find ways to mix him in the game.

Green has averaged about 40% of the total receptions by the team’s wide receivers since 2011. I projected him to be around 44.7% in 2013 after being about 44% in 2012. He should double the next closest receiver’s total receptions.

Sanu and Jones may see a drastic increase in playing time from their rookie years, but they’ll see their production bitten by rookies at RB and TE. With more 2-TE sets, we won’t be able to see Sanu in the slot as much and that will hurt his productivity. Jones needs to be more confident in his hands and catching away from his body, but he offers big-play ability and I could see Jay Gruden designing deep plays for him.

2013 Projection for A.J. Green
Receptions: 88
Rec Yards: 1,241
Average: 14.1
Rec TDs: 10

Rush Yards: 65

Fantasy Points: 278 (PPR)

2013 Projection for Mohamed Sanu
Receptions: 36
Rec Yards: 367
Average: 10.2
Rec TDs: 6

Rush Yards: 60

Fantasy Points: 114 (PPR)

2013 Projection for Marvin Jones
Receptions: 26
Rec Yards: 317
Average: 12.2
Rec TDs: 2

Rush Yards: 35

Fantasy Points: 72 (PPR)

Andrew Hawkins (8 games)
17 Receptions for 178 yards
50 rush yards and 3 total TDs

Brandon Tate
17 Receptions for 198 yards and 1 TD

Tight End
The Bengals dove into the two-tight end craze when they drafted Tyler Eifert 21st overall. They now have the two highest drafted TEs in the last 5-years on the roster with veteran Jermaine Gresham as the other.

This offense already ran over 250 plays with 2-TE on the field in 2012 and we can expect that number to increase. With Gresham, you must look past the initial misevaluation. He isn’t this athletic receiving freak we were expecting. He’s more of a Power Forward (Basketball) playing TE. He’s amazingly strong and stout and plays with a nasty streak when he’s on. He’ll hold down the blocking duties and I look for Gresham to be used underneath as they try to get the ball into his hands early.
Tyler Eifert is more of the natural receiver. His hand-eye coordination and his ability to high-point the football is RARE for a tight end. He’ll play the slot, split out wide and come in motion. Look for Eifert to be another chess piece and challenge defenses down field and up the seam.

The tight end position has caught about 23% of the Bengals passes over the last two seasons and I’m projecting that number to increase to about 30% in 2013.
Gresham has also caught 75-88% of the total receptions by TEs on the Bengals in the last two seasons. I’m decreasing that number to 65% in 2013 with the addition of Eifert.

2013 Projection for Jermaine Gresham
Receptions: 68
Rec Yards: 693
Average: 10.2
Rec TDs: 5

Fantasy Points: 167 (PPR)

2013 Projection for Tyler Eifert
Receptions: 31
Rec Yards: 363
Average: 11.7
Rec TDs: 4

Fantasy Points: 91 (PPR)

***This leaves 23 receptions and 225 yards left to spare. I’m leaving those for the backup RBs, TEs and WRs that we can’t account for. They’ll get some playing time due to inevitable injuries.****

Keys to Bengals Success Against Denver

1) Bengals Defense
By keeping McGahee and rookie Ronnie Hillman in check, the biggest benefit is taking away the play-action fakes. Peyton Manning has the best play-action in the NFL. He makes it look exactly the same between real hand-offs and play-fakes. Linebackers gets sucked in and Safeties hesitate while waiting for the offense to declare their intentions; both reactions will get you killed. Manning is banking on it. He’s also not going to allow Cincinnati to make substitutions like they normally do. Denver will pick up the pace when they get a matchup they like. Mike Zimmer isn’t afraid to throw his nickel package out there even though the offense is only in 2WR packages. This would force the Broncos to run against a “small” Bengals front. On the other hand, if Cincinnati decides to play base defense against Denver’s 3WR looks, Manning will hurry it up and not allow Zimmer to sub players in. Don’t expect to see the backups as much as normal, but look for Cincinnati’s nickel defense to be the primary defense.

2) Bengals Offense
Last year in Denver, the Bengals were in their third game of the season and the offense awoke in the 2nd half behind a vertical passing attack. This year, the Bengals offense has only been aggressive during a 3-game stretch against Cleveland, Washington & Jacksonville. Denver creates a challenge because none of those teams have a Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumerville or Von Miller. Andre Smith in particular must be on his best game against Miller. Smith’s consistent deficiency remains his inside in pass protection. He gets back so quickly, that he can be vulnerable to inside moves. That happens to be Miller’s specialty. He’s so fast vertically that he forces OTs to get back quick and set up quicker, that’s when Miller’s rare agility comes into play. He can plant that left foot and drive inside without losing much speed. This causes QBs to bail early and Andy Dalton has the propensity to do that and cut his field in half as a result.